Virtus Entella 1–1 Brescia: Result & Stats

Virtus Entella

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Brescia

2/27/2021

Serie B · Round 25Stadio Comunale Chiavari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Virtus Entella36%

×Draw28%

Brescia36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus EntellaExpected goals in this matchBrescia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.20

Virtus Entella

1.21

Brescia

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 117 away

1.14

creates per match

1.15

1.25

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Virtus Entella

1.14

Brescia

1.15

allows per match

Virtus Entella

1.25

Brescia

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Brescia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw

64%

Virtus Entella or Brescia

72%

Draw or Brescia

64%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

16%

Brescia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

70%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

34%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

12%

Brescia 1+ goals

70%

Brescia 2+ goals

34%

Brescia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

50%

Brescia (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.28 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.14 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Brescia attack 1.15 + Virtus Entella defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Virtus Entella scores more

36%

level

28%

Brescia scores more

36%

Virtus Entella at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff