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Brescia vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Brescia
Brescia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
10/31/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 6Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Brescia51%
×Draw26%
Virtus Entella24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia
1.54
Virtus Entella
0.96

Brescia creates 60% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 59 away

creates per match

Brescia
1.48
Virtus Entella
0.76

allows per match

Brescia
1.17
Virtus Entella
1.61

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par
Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Virtus Entella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Brescia or draw
76%
Brescia or Virtus Entella
74%
Draw or Virtus Entella
49%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+
26%
Virtus Entella wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals
79%
Brescia 2+ goals
45%
Brescia 3+ goals
20%
Virtus Entella 1+ goals
62%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
25%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)
68%
Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.17 · 117 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.48 + Virtus Entella defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Virtus Entella attack 0.76 + Brescia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Brescia scores more
51%
level
26%
Virtus Entella scores more
24%

Brescia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Brescia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Brescia 2–2 Virtus Entella

Brescia and Virtus Entella drew 2-2 in Serie B on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.