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Virtus Entella vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Bari
Bari
G. De Luca 69'
M. Troiano 37' (pen)
A. La Mantia 18'
C. Galano 65'
12/3/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 17Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Virtus Entella53%
×Draw25%
Bari23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Entella
1.65
Bari
0.99

Virtus Entella creates 67% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Virtus Entella
1.44
Bari
0.72

allows per match

Virtus Entella
1.26
Bari
1.86

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.01on par
Bari+0.07on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Bari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw
77%
Virtus Entella or Bari
75%
Draw or Bari
47%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+
28%
Bari wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals
81%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
49%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
23%
Bari 1+ goals
63%
Bari 2+ goals
26%
Bari 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
70%
Bari (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.26 · 11 matches

Bari away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.44 + Bari defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.65

Bari attack 0.72 + Virtus Entella defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Virtus Entella scores more
53%
level
25%
Bari scores more
23%

Virtus Entella at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
A. La Mantia↳ G. De Luca
31'
D. Diaw← D. Luppi
34'
Migjen Basha
37'
M. TroianoPenalty
39'
Jacopo Petriccione
44'
F. Brienza← D. Anderson
65'
C. Galano
69'
G. De Luca↳ D. Brivio
76'
Dany Mota← G. De Luca
82'
F. Ardizzone← A. La Mantia
82'
L. Kozák← J. Petriccione
84'
Michele Troiano
85'
Alessandro Micai
86'
V. De Lucia← C. Galano

Possession

48%Virtus

Shots

11Virtus

Statistics

VirtusBari
Overview
48%Possession52%
11Total Shots6
4Corners10
22Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots6
6On Target4
5Off Target2
Passing
48%Possession52%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
22Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Virtus Entella vs Bari

Virtus Entella beat Bari 3-1 in Serie B on December 3, 2017.

Goals: A. La Mantia (18'), M. Troiano (37' pen), C. Galano (65'), G. De Luca (69').

Bari controlled possession (52%) and registered 6 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Chiavari.