Virtus Entella 2–0 Bari: Result & Stats | Serie B

Virtus Entella

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bari

D. Diaw 81'

N. Ammari 27'

3/4/2017

Serie B · Round 29Stadio Comunale di Chiavari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Virtus Entella53%

×Draw25%

Bari23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus EntellaExpected goals in this matchBari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.99

Virtus Entella

1.65

Bari

0.99

Virtus Entella creates 67% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.44

creates per match

0.72

1.26

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Virtus Entella

1.44

Bari

0.72

allows per match

Virtus Entella

1.26

Bari

1.86

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.01on par

Bari+0.07on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Bari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw

77%

Virtus Entella or Bari

75%

Draw or Bari

47%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

28%

Bari wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

81%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

49%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

23%

Bari 1+ goals

63%

Bari 2+ goals

26%

Bari 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

70%

Bari (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.26 · 11 matches

Bari away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.44 + Bari defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.65

Bari attack 0.72 + Virtus Entella defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Virtus Entella scores more

53%

level

25%

Bari scores more

23%

Virtus Entella at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

31'

31'

40'

51'

F. Raicevic← R. Macek

62'

F. Furlan← V. Parigini

64'

Stefano Sabelli

66'

S. Sini← S. Palermo

68'

D. Diaw← A. Catellani

74'

L. Tremolada← N. Ammari

81'

D. Diaw↳ F. Caputo

82'

R. Maniero← A. Floro Flores

Possession

Shots

Statistics

VirtusBari

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots10

6Corners5

18Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots10

7On Target4

4Off Target6

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0