Virtus Entella 1–2 Avellino: Result & Stats

Virtus Entella

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Avellino

A. Tiritiello 90'

T. Cancellotti 25'

R. Russo 22'

3/15/2026

Serie B · Round 30Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Virtus Entella56%

×Draw25%

Avellino18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus EntellaExpected goals in this matchAvellino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.77

Virtus Entella

1.56

Avellino

0.77

Virtus Entella creates 103% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.49

creates per match

0.44

1.09

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Virtus Entella

1.49

Avellino

0.44

allows per match

Virtus Entella

1.09

Avellino

1.63

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Virtus Entella-0.05on par

Avellino+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Avellino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw

82%

Virtus Entella or Avellino

75%

Draw or Avellino

44%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

30%

Avellino wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

79%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

46%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

21%

Avellino 1+ goals

54%

Avellino 2+ goals

18%

Avellino 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

75%

Avellino (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.09 · 9 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.49 + Avellino defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

Avellino attack 0.44 + Virtus Entella defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Virtus Entella scores more

56%

level

25%

Avellino scores more

18%

Virtus Entella at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

G. Daffara

Avellino · G

8.2

Match Events

6'

Marco Sala

22'

R. Russo↳ A. Izzo

25'

T. Cancellotti↳ M. Palumbo

43'

Luca Parodi

46'

A. Le Borgne← L. Palmiero

55'

A. Franzoni← N. Karic

55'

T. Del Lungo← L. Parodi

58'

T. Biasci← G. Tutino

58'

J. Kumi← M. Besaggio

67'

M. Tirelli← D. Bariti

67'

B. Guiu← A. Debenedetti

71'

R. Insigne← R. Russo

79'

M. Dalla Vecchia← L. Benedetti

79'

A. Milani← M. Sala

90'

A. Tiritiello↳ T. Del Lungo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VirtusAvellino

Overview

59%Possession41%

19Total Shots6

1.40Expected Goals (xG)0.56

7Corners5

16Fouls17

Shots

19Total Shots6

5On Target3

7Off Target2

7Blocked1

14Inside Box4

5Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

498Total Passes352

421Accurate Passes277

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

0.94Goals Prevented0.94

Discipline

16Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3