Avellino 2–0 Virtus Entella: Result & Stats

Avellino

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Virtus Entella

J. Kumi 68'

T. Biasci 9'

9/27/2025

Serie B · Round 5Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Avellino42%

×Draw27%

Virtus Entella31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvellinoExpected goals in this matchVirtus Entella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.15

Avellino

1.37

Virtus Entella

1.15

Avellino creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.36

creates per match

0.86

1.44

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Avellino

1.36

Virtus Entella

0.86

allows per match

Avellino

1.44

Virtus Entella

1.38

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

Avellino-0.09on par

Virtus Entella-0.50scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino ↓

Virtus Entella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Avellino or draw

69%

Avellino or Virtus Entella

73%

Draw or Virtus Entella

58%

Winning margin

Avellino wins by 2+

20%

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Avellino 1+ goals

75%

Avellino 2+ goals

40%

Avellino 3+ goals

16%

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

68%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

32%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Avellino (draw refunded)

57%

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 11 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.38 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino attack 1.36 + Virtus Entella defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.37

Virtus Entella attack 0.86 + Avellino defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Avellino scores more

42%

level

27%

Virtus Entella scores more

31%

Avellino at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Avellino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

J. Kumi

Avellino · M

9.3

Match Events

9'

T. Biasci↳ T. Cancellotti

34'

Ahmad Benali

41'

Luca Parodi

67'

M. Nichetti← A. Benali

67'

A. Debenedetti← D. Ankeye

68'

J. Kumi

70'

M. Gyabuaa← M. Besaggio

76'

R. Russo← V. Crespi

76'

F. Lescano← T. Biasci

78'

M. Dalla Vecchia← L. Parodi

79'

D. Bariti← I. Marconi

79'

A. Boccadamo← A. Franzoni

85'

M. Palumbo← J. Kumi

85'

M. Armellino← L. Palmiero

90+3'

Andrea Cagnano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvellinoVirtus

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots10

3Corners8

8Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots10

5On Target2

3Off Target3

4Blocked5

7Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

413Total Passes456

353Accurate Passes397

85%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1