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Virtus Entella U19 vs Cesena U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Virtus Entella U19
Virtus Entella U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cesena U19
Cesena U19
11/11/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 8Stadio Angelo Daneri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Virtus Entella U1931%
×Draw22%
Cesena U1946%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Entella U19
1.53
Cesena U19
1.90

Cesena U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 28 away

creates per match

Virtus Entella U19
1.63
Cesena U19
2.57

allows per match

Virtus Entella U19
1.24
Cesena U19
1.43

finishing

Virtus Entella U19+0.00on par
Cesena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella U19 ↓

Cesena U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Virtus Entella U19 or draw
54%
Virtus Entella U19 or Cesena U19
78%
Draw or Cesena U19
69%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella U19 wins by 2+
15%
Cesena U19 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Virtus Entella U19 1+ goals
78%
Virtus Entella U19 2+ goals
45%
Virtus Entella U19 3+ goals
20%
Cesena U19 1+ goals
85%
Cesena U19 2+ goals
56%
Cesena U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella U19 (draw refunded)
40%
Cesena U19 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 84 matches

Cesena U19 away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella U19 attack 1.63 + Cesena U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.53

Cesena U19 attack 2.57 + Virtus Entella U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Virtus Entella U19 scores more
31%
level
22%
Cesena U19 scores more
46%

Cesena U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cesena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Virtus Entella U19 vs Cesena U19

Virtus Entella U19 and Cesena U19 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Angelo Daneri in Chiavari.