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Cesena U19 vs Virtus Entella U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Cesena U19
Cesena U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Virtus Entella U19
Virtus Entella U19
Unknown 76'
Unknown 74'
5/4/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 29Centro Sportivo Alberto Rognoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cesena U1964%
×Draw18%
Virtus Entella U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena U19
2.51
Virtus Entella U19
1.27

Cesena U19 creates 98% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 84 away

creates per match

Cesena U19
3.63
Virtus Entella U19
1.65

allows per match

Cesena U19
0.89
Virtus Entella U19
1.40

finishing

Cesena U19+0.00on par
Virtus Entella U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena U19 ↓

Virtus Entella U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Cesena U19 or draw
82%
Cesena U19 or Virtus Entella U19
82%
Draw or Virtus Entella U19
36%

Winning margin

Cesena U19 wins by 2+
42%
Virtus Entella U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cesena U19 1+ goals
92%
Cesena U19 2+ goals
71%
Cesena U19 3+ goals
45%
Virtus Entella U19 1+ goals
72%
Virtus Entella U19 2+ goals
36%
Virtus Entella U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)
78%
Virtus Entella U19 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena U19 at home — creates 3.63, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Virtus Entella U19 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena U19 attack 3.63 + Virtus Entella U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.51

Virtus Entella U19 attack 1.65 + Cesena U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Cesena U19 scores more
64%
level
18%
Virtus Entella U19 scores more
18%

Cesena U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Cesena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

74'
76'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cesena U19 vs Virtus Entella U19

Cesena U19 and Virtus Entella U19 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on May 4, 2024.

Goals: ? (74', 76').

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Alberto Rognoni in Villa Silvia di Lizzano.