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Virtus Ciserano Bergamo vs Real Calepina — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real Calepina
Real Calepina
4/6/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 34Stadio Carlo Rossoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo37%
×Draw26%
Real Calepina38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.35
Real Calepina
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.37
Real Calepina
1.11

allows per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.63
Real Calepina
1.32

finishing

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par
Real Calepina+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo ↓

Real Calepina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or draw
62%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or Real Calepina
74%
Draw or Real Calepina
63%

Winning margin

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+
17%
Real Calepina wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals
74%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals
39%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals
15%
Real Calepina 1+ goals
75%
Real Calepina 2+ goals
40%
Real Calepina 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)
49%
Real Calepina (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Real Calepina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 1.37 + Real Calepina defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Real Calepina attack 1.11 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more
37%
level
26%
Real Calepina scores more
38%

Real Calepina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Calepina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1–1 Real Calepina

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo and Real Calepina drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Rossoni in Ciserano.