Real Calepina 1–0 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

Real Calepina

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

11/24/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 15Campo Sportivo Comunale Libico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Calepina43%

×Draw29%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real CalepinaExpected goals in this matchVirtus Ciserano Bergamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.92

Real Calepina

1.23

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

0.92

Real Calepina creates 34% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.21

creates per match

0.84

1.00

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Real Calepina

1.21

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

0.84

allows per match

Real Calepina

1.00

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Calepina+0.00on par

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Calepina ↓

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Real Calepina or draw

72%

Real Calepina or Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

71%

Draw or Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

57%

Winning margin

Real Calepina wins by 2+

19%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Calepina 1+ goals

71%

Real Calepina 2+ goals

35%

Real Calepina 3+ goals

13%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals

60%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals

23%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Real Calepina (draw refunded)

61%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Calepina at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Calepina attack 1.21 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 0.84 + Real Calepina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Calepina scores more

43%

level

29%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more

28%

Real Calepina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Calepina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff