Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 0–1 Brusaporto

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brusaporto

3/23/2025

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 32Stadio Carlo Rossoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo32%

×Draw28%

Brusaporto40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus Ciserano BergamoExpected goals in this matchBrusaporto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.26

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

1.08

Brusaporto

1.26

Brusaporto creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.37

creates per match

0.89

1.63

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

1.37

Brusaporto

0.89

allows per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

1.63

Brusaporto

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par

Brusaporto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo ↓

Brusaporto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or draw

60%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or Brusaporto

72%

Draw or Brusaporto

68%

Winning margin

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+

12%

Brusaporto wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals

66%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals

29%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals

10%

Brusaporto 1+ goals

72%

Brusaporto 2+ goals

36%

Brusaporto 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)

44%

Brusaporto (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Brusaporto away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 1.37 + Brusaporto defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.08

Brusaporto attack 0.89 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more

32%

level

28%

Brusaporto scores more

40%

Brusaporto at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Brusaporto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff