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Brusaporto vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Brusaporto
Brusaporto
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
11/10/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 13Campo Sportivo Comunale Brusaporto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brusaporto46%
×Draw27%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brusaporto
1.40
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.00

Brusaporto creates 40% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Brusaporto
1.53
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
0.84

allows per match

Brusaporto
1.16
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.26

finishing

Brusaporto+0.00on par
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusaporto ↓

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Brusaporto or draw
73%
Brusaporto or Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
73%
Draw or Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
54%

Winning margin

Brusaporto wins by 2+
22%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Brusaporto 1+ goals
75%
Brusaporto 2+ goals
41%
Brusaporto 3+ goals
17%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals
63%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals
26%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Brusaporto (draw refunded)
63%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusaporto at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusaporto attack 1.53 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.40

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 0.84 + Brusaporto defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Brusaporto scores more
46%
level
27%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more
27%

Brusaporto at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Brusaporto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Brusaporto 1–2 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo beat Brusaporto 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Brusaporto in Brusaporto.