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Virtus Ciserano Bergamo vs Adriese — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Adriese
Adriese
4/17/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 36Stadio Carlo Rossoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo35%
×Draw25%
Adriese40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.37
Adriese
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

creates per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.37
Adriese
1.36

allows per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.63
Adriese
1.36

finishing

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par
Adriese+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo ↓

Adriese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or draw
60%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or Adriese
75%
Draw or Adriese
65%

Winning margin

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+
16%
Adriese wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals
75%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals
40%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals
16%
Adriese 1+ goals
78%
Adriese 2+ goals
44%
Adriese 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)
46%
Adriese (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Adriese away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 1.37 + Adriese defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Adriese attack 1.36 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more
35%
level
25%
Adriese scores more
40%

Adriese at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Virtus Ciserano Bergamo vs Adriese

Adriese beat Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Rossoni in Ciserano.