Adriese 4–0 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo: Result & Stats

Adriese

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

Y. G. Gnago 63', 7'

T. Gentile 39'

T. Petdji 35'

12/8/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 17Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Adriese48%

×Draw27%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AdrieseExpected goals in this matchVirtus Ciserano Bergamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.96

Adriese

1.45

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

0.96

Adriese creates 51% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 19 away

1.64

creates per match

0.84

1.07

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Adriese

1.64

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

0.84

allows per match

Adriese

1.07

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adriese+0.00on par

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adriese ↓

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Adriese or draw

75%

Adriese or Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

73%

Draw or Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

52%

Winning margin

Adriese wins by 2+

24%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Adriese 1+ goals

77%

Adriese 2+ goals

42%

Adriese 3+ goals

18%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals

62%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals

25%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Adriese (draw refunded)

66%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adriese at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 100 matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adriese attack 1.64 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.45

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 0.84 + Adriese defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Adriese scores more

48%

level

27%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more

25%

Adriese at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Y. G. Gnago

35'

T. Petdji

39'

T. Gentile

63'

Y. G. Gnago

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff