Virtus Bolzano 2–1 Treviso: Result & Stats

Virtus Bolzano

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Treviso

O. Adrian 31'

Y. Bounou 17'

A. Arcopinto 45+1'

3/3/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 25Campo Calcio Righi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Virtus Bolzano31%

×Draw25%

Treviso44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus BolzanoExpected goals in this matchTreviso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.50

Virtus Bolzano

1.21

Treviso

1.50

Treviso creates 24% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 53 away

1.41

creates per match

1.55

1.44

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Virtus Bolzano

1.41

Treviso

1.55

allows per match

Virtus Bolzano

1.44

Treviso

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Treviso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Bolzano ↓

Treviso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Virtus Bolzano or draw

56%

Virtus Bolzano or Treviso

75%

Draw or Treviso

69%

Winning margin

Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+

13%

Treviso wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals

70%

Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals

34%

Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals

12%

Treviso 1+ goals

78%

Treviso 2+ goals

44%

Treviso 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)

41%

Treviso (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Bolzano at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Treviso away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.00 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Bolzano attack 1.41 + Treviso defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Treviso attack 1.55 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Virtus Bolzano scores more

31%

level

25%

Treviso scores more

44%

Treviso at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Treviso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Y. Bounou

31'

O. Adrian

45+1'

A. Arcopinto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff