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Treviso vs Virtus Bolzano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Treviso
Treviso
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
Y. G. Gnago 90+1'
F. Posocco 69'
10/28/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 8Stadio Omobono Tenni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Treviso51%
×Draw27%
Virtus Bolzano22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treviso
1.41
Virtus Bolzano
0.82

Treviso creates 72% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 34 away

creates per match

Treviso
1.47
Virtus Bolzano
0.88

allows per match

Treviso
0.77
Virtus Bolzano
1.35

finishing

Treviso+0.00on par
Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treviso ↓

Virtus Bolzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Treviso or draw
78%
Treviso or Virtus Bolzano
73%
Draw or Virtus Bolzano
49%

Winning margin

Treviso wins by 2+
25%
Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Treviso 1+ goals
76%
Treviso 2+ goals
41%
Treviso 3+ goals
17%
Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
56%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
20%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Treviso (draw refunded)
70%
Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treviso at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

Virtus Bolzano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treviso attack 1.47 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Virtus Bolzano attack 0.88 + Treviso defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Treviso scores more
51%
level
27%
Virtus Bolzano scores more
22%

Treviso at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Treviso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

69'
F. Posocco
90+1'
Y. G. Gnago

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Treviso 2 – 0 Virtus Bolzano

Treviso beat Virtus Bolzano 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 28, 2023.

Goals: F. Posocco (69'), Y. G. Gnago (90+1').

The match was played at Stadio Omobono Tenni in Treviso.