Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Virtus Bolzano vs Levico — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Levico
Levico
O. Adrian 23'
T. Gentile 50'
3/19/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 28Campo Calcio Righi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Virtus Bolzano46%
×Draw26%
Levico28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Bolzano
1.47
Levico
1.07

Virtus Bolzano creates 37% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Virtus Bolzano
1.41
Levico
0.71

allows per match

Virtus Bolzano
1.44
Levico
1.53

finishing

Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par
Levico+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Bolzano ↓

Levico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Virtus Bolzano or draw
72%
Virtus Bolzano or Levico
74%
Draw or Levico
54%

Winning margin

Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
23%
Levico wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
77%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
43%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
18%
Levico 1+ goals
66%
Levico 2+ goals
29%
Levico 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
63%
Levico (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Bolzano at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Levico away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Bolzano attack 1.41 + Levico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.47

Levico attack 0.71 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Virtus Bolzano scores more
46%
level
26%
Levico scores more
28%

Virtus Bolzano at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Virtus Bolzano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
O. Adrian
50'
T. Gentile

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Virtus Bolzano vs Levico

Virtus Bolzano and Levico drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on March 19, 2023.

Goals: O. Adrian (23'), T. Gentile (50').

The match was played at Campo Calcio Righi in Bozen.