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Levico vs Virtus Bolzano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Levico
Levico
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
E. Kaptina 11'
11/13/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 11Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Levico41%
×Draw31%
Virtus Bolzano28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levico
1.11
Virtus Bolzano
0.86

Levico creates 29% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Levico
0.88
Virtus Bolzano
0.88

allows per match

Levico
0.85
Virtus Bolzano
1.35

finishing

Levico+0.00on par
Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levico ↓

Virtus Bolzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Levico or draw
72%
Levico or Virtus Bolzano
69%
Draw or Virtus Bolzano
59%

Winning margin

Levico wins by 2+
17%
Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Levico 1+ goals
67%
Levico 2+ goals
30%
Levico 3+ goals
10%
Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
58%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
21%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Levico (draw refunded)
59%
Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levico at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Virtus Bolzano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levico attack 0.88 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.11

Virtus Bolzano attack 0.88 + Levico defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Levico scores more
41%
level
31%
Virtus Bolzano scores more
28%

Levico at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Levico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
E. Kaptina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Levico 0–1 Virtus Bolzano

Virtus Bolzano beat Levico 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on November 13, 2022.

Goals: E. Kaptina (11').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Levico Terme.