Virtus Bolzano 2–0 Legnago Salus: Result & Stats

Virtus Bolzano

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Legnago Salus

T. Kavcic 67'

M. Nicotera 10'

3/5/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 26Campo Calcio Righi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Virtus Bolzano31%

×Draw24%

Legnago Salus45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus BolzanoExpected goals in this matchLegnago Salus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.61

Virtus Bolzano

1.29

Legnago Salus

1.61

Legnago Salus creates 25% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 48 away

1.41

creates per match

1.79

1.44

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Virtus Bolzano

1.41

Legnago Salus

1.79

allows per match

Virtus Bolzano

1.44

Legnago Salus

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Legnago Salus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Bolzano ↓

Legnago Salus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Virtus Bolzano or draw

55%

Virtus Bolzano or Legnago Salus

76%

Draw or Legnago Salus

69%

Winning margin

Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+

13%

Legnago Salus wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals

72%

Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals

37%

Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals

14%

Legnago Salus 1+ goals

80%

Legnago Salus 2+ goals

48%

Legnago Salus 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)

41%

Legnago Salus (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Bolzano at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Legnago Salus away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Bolzano attack 1.41 + Legnago Salus defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Legnago Salus attack 1.79 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Virtus Bolzano scores more

31%

level

24%

Legnago Salus scores more

45%

Legnago Salus at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Legnago Salus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

M. Nicotera

67'

T. Kavcic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff