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Legnago Salus vs Virtus Bolzano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Legnago Salus
Legnago Salus
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
10/29/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 9Stadio Mario Sandrini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Legnago Salus49%
×Draw27%
Virtus Bolzano23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legnago Salus
1.40
Virtus Bolzano
0.87

Legnago Salus creates 61% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 34 away

creates per match

Legnago Salus
1.44
Virtus Bolzano
0.88

allows per match

Legnago Salus
0.86
Virtus Bolzano
1.35

finishing

Legnago Salus+0.00on par
Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legnago Salus ↓

Virtus Bolzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Legnago Salus or draw
77%
Legnago Salus or Virtus Bolzano
73%
Draw or Virtus Bolzano
51%

Winning margin

Legnago Salus wins by 2+
24%
Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Legnago Salus 1+ goals
75%
Legnago Salus 2+ goals
41%
Legnago Salus 3+ goals
17%
Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
58%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
22%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Legnago Salus (draw refunded)
68%
Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legnago Salus at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Virtus Bolzano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legnago Salus attack 1.44 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Virtus Bolzano attack 0.88 + Legnago Salus defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Legnago Salus scores more
49%
level
27%
Virtus Bolzano scores more
23%

Legnago Salus at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Legnago Salus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Legnago Salus 1–1 Virtus Bolzano

Legnago Salus and Virtus Bolzano drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Sandrini in Legnago.