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Virtus Bolzano vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
N. Mlakar 75'
E. Kaptina 68' (pen)
O. M. David 31'
A. Bussi 4'
S. Corbanese 87'
S. Svidercoschi 12'
9/28/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 4Campo Calcio Righi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Virtus Bolzano34%
×Draw25%
Dolomiti Bellunesi40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Bolzano
1.32
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.46

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

creates per match

Virtus Bolzano
1.41
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

Virtus Bolzano
1.44
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Bolzano ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Virtus Bolzano or draw
60%
Virtus Bolzano or Dolomiti Bellunesi
75%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
66%

Winning margin

Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
15%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
73%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
38%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
15%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
77%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
43%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
46%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Bolzano at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Bolzano attack 1.41 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Virtus Bolzano scores more
34%
level
25%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
40%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
A. Bussi
12'
S. Svidercoschi
31'
O. M. David
68'
E. KaptinaPenalty
75'
N. Mlakar
87'
S. Corbanese

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Virtus Bolzano vs Dolomiti Bellunesi

Virtus Bolzano beat Dolomiti Bellunesi 4-2 in Serie D - Girone C on September 28, 2022.

Goals: A. Bussi (4'), S. Svidercoschi (12'), O. M. David (31'), E. Kaptina (68' pen), N. Mlakar (75'), S. Corbanese (87').

The match was played at Campo Calcio Righi in Bozen.