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Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Virtus Bolzano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
S. Corbanese 10'
O. M. David 13'
1/29/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 21Stadio Comunale Polisportivo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi48%
×Draw26%
Virtus Bolzano25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47
Virtus Bolzano
0.98

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 50% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 34 away

creates per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.59
Virtus Bolzano
0.88

allows per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.07
Virtus Bolzano
1.35

finishing

Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par
Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolomiti Bellunesi ↓

Virtus Bolzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dolomiti Bellunesi or draw
75%
Dolomiti Bellunesi or Virtus Bolzano
74%
Draw or Virtus Bolzano
52%

Winning margin

Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
24%
Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
77%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
43%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
18%
Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
62%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
26%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
66%
Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolomiti Bellunesi at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Virtus Bolzano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.59 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Virtus Bolzano attack 0.88 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
48%
level
26%
Virtus Bolzano scores more
25%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
S. Corbanese
13'
O. M. David

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dolomiti Bellunesi 1 – 1 Virtus Bolzano

Dolomiti Bellunesi and Virtus Bolzano drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on January 29, 2023.

Goals: S. Corbanese (10'), O. M. David (13').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Polisportivo in Belluno.