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Virtus Bolzano vs Caldiero Terme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
10/9/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 6Campo Calcio Righi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Virtus Bolzano35%
×Draw26%
Caldiero Terme39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Bolzano
1.30
Caldiero Terme
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 47 away

creates per match

Virtus Bolzano
1.41
Caldiero Terme
1.34

allows per match

Virtus Bolzano
1.44
Caldiero Terme
1.19

finishing

Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par
Caldiero Terme+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Bolzano ↓

Caldiero Terme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Virtus Bolzano or draw
61%
Virtus Bolzano or Caldiero Terme
74%
Draw or Caldiero Terme
65%

Winning margin

Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
15%
Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
73%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
37%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
14%
Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
75%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
40%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
47%
Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Bolzano at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Caldiero Terme away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Bolzano attack 1.41 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Caldiero Terme attack 1.34 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Virtus Bolzano scores more
35%
level
26%
Caldiero Terme scores more
39%

Caldiero Terme at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Caldiero Terme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Virtus Bolzano 2–2 Caldiero Terme

Virtus Bolzano and Caldiero Terme drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone C on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Calcio Righi in Bozen.