Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Caldiero Terme vs Virtus Bolzano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
N. Baldani 37'
E. Kaptina 88'
Y. Bounou 75'
2/12/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 23Stadio Comunale di Caldiero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Caldiero Terme42%
×Draw27%
Virtus Bolzano31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldiero Terme
1.32
Virtus Bolzano
1.09

Caldiero Terme creates 21% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 34 away

creates per match

Caldiero Terme
1.29
Virtus Bolzano
0.88

allows per match

Caldiero Terme
1.31
Virtus Bolzano
1.35

finishing

Caldiero Terme+0.00on par
Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldiero Terme ↓

Virtus Bolzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Caldiero Terme or draw
69%
Caldiero Terme or Virtus Bolzano
73%
Draw or Virtus Bolzano
58%

Winning margin

Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
19%
Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
73%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
38%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
15%
Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
66%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
30%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
58%
Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldiero Terme at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Virtus Bolzano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldiero Terme attack 1.29 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Virtus Bolzano attack 0.88 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Caldiero Terme scores more
42%
level
27%
Virtus Bolzano scores more
31%

Caldiero Terme at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Caldiero Terme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
N. Baldani
75'
Y. Bounou
88'
E. Kaptina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Caldiero Terme 1–2 Virtus Bolzano

Virtus Bolzano beat Caldiero Terme 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on February 12, 2023.

Goals: N. Baldani (37'), Y. Bounou (75'), E. Kaptina (88').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Caldiero in Caldiero.