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Virtus Bolzano vs Atletico Castegnato — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
D. Cremonini 30'
R. Rusconi 20'
11/26/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 13Campo Calcio Righi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Virtus Bolzano44%
×Draw25%
Atletico Castegnato31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Bolzano
1.56
Atletico Castegnato
1.25

Virtus Bolzano creates 25% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Virtus Bolzano
1.41
Atletico Castegnato
1.06

allows per match

Virtus Bolzano
1.44
Atletico Castegnato
1.71

finishing

Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par
Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Bolzano ↓

Atletico Castegnato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Virtus Bolzano or draw
69%
Virtus Bolzano or Atletico Castegnato
75%
Draw or Atletico Castegnato
56%

Winning margin

Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
22%
Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
79%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
46%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
21%
Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
71%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
36%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
59%
Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Bolzano at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Atletico Castegnato away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Bolzano attack 1.41 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.06 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Virtus Bolzano scores more
44%
level
25%
Atletico Castegnato scores more
31%

Virtus Bolzano at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Virtus Bolzano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
R. Rusconi
30'
D. Cremonini

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Virtus Bolzano vs Atletico Castegnato

Virtus Bolzano and Atletico Castegnato drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on November 26, 2023.

Goals: R. Rusconi (20'), D. Cremonini (30').

The match was played at Campo Calcio Righi in Bozen.