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Atletico Castegnato vs Virtus Bolzano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
4/7/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 30Stadio Comunale Castegnato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Castegnato37%
×Draw27%
Virtus Bolzano37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Castegnato
1.29
Virtus Bolzano
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.24
Virtus Bolzano
0.88

allows per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.71
Virtus Bolzano
1.35

finishing

Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par
Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Castegnato ↓

Virtus Bolzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Castegnato or draw
63%
Atletico Castegnato or Virtus Bolzano
73%
Draw or Virtus Bolzano
63%

Winning margin

Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
16%
Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
72%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
37%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
14%
Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
72%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
37%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
50%
Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Castegnato at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Virtus Bolzano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.24 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Virtus Bolzano attack 0.88 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atletico Castegnato scores more
37%
level
27%
Virtus Bolzano scores more
37%

Atletico Castegnato at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atletico Castegnato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Castegnato vs Virtus Bolzano

Atletico Castegnato and Virtus Bolzano drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Castegnato in Castegnato.