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Vipers vs The Cove — South Australia State League 1 2021

Vipers
Vipers
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
The Cove
The Cove
6/21/2025South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 15Apex Football Centre Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vipers52%
×Draw21%
The Cove27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipers
2.13
The Cove
1.48

Vipers creates 44% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 20 away

creates per match

Vipers
1.76
The Cove
1.25

allows per match

Vipers
1.70
The Cove
2.50

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par
The Cove+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

The Cove →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Vipers or draw
73%
Vipers or The Cove
79%
Draw or The Cove
48%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+
31%
The Cove wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals
88%
Vipers 2+ goals
63%
Vipers 3+ goals
35%
The Cove 1+ goals
77%
The Cove 2+ goals
43%
The Cove 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)
66%
The Cove (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

The Cove away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 1.76 + The Cove defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

The Cove attack 1.25 + Vipers defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vipers scores more
52%
level
21%
The Cove scores more
27%

Vipers at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Vipers 0–0 The Cove

Vipers and The Cove drew 0-0 in South Australia State League 1 on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Apex Football Centre Pitch 1 in Adelaide.