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The Cove vs Vipers — South Australia State League 1 2021

The Cove
The Cove
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Vipers
Vipers
3/22/2025South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 4Southern Soccer Facility

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

The Cove64%
×Draw19%
Vipers17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Cove
2.29
Vipers
1.09

The Cove creates 110% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

creates per match

The Cove
2.05
Vipers
1.24

allows per match

The Cove
0.95
Vipers
2.52

finishing

The Cove+0.00on par
Vipers+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Cove ↓

Vipers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

The Cove or draw
83%
The Cove or Vipers
81%
Draw or Vipers
36%

Winning margin

The Cove wins by 2+
41%
Vipers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

The Cove 1+ goals
90%
The Cove 2+ goals
66%
The Cove 3+ goals
40%
Vipers 1+ goals
66%
Vipers 2+ goals
30%
Vipers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

The Cove (draw refunded)
79%
Vipers (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Cove at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Vipers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Cove attack 2.05 + Vipers defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.29

Vipers attack 1.24 + The Cove defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

The Cove scores more
64%
level
19%
Vipers scores more
17%

The Cove at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "The Cove will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: The Cove 4–2 Vipers

The Cove beat Vipers 4-2 in South Australia State League 1 on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Southern Soccer Facility in Adelaide.