Vipers vs Salisbury United — South Australia State League 1 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 33+ matches
Vipers44%
Salisbury United33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Vipers creates 17% more chances
Season form · 33 home / 33 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over64
- Under36
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Vipers ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Vipers at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches
Salisbury United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Vipers attack 1.76 + Salisbury United defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.79
Salisbury United attack 1.36 + Vipers defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.53
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Vipers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Adelaide Raiders
Fulham United
Adelaide Olympic
Adelaide Victory
Adelaide Blue Eagles
Modbury Jets
Cumberland United
The Cove
Eastern United
Adelaide CobrasSalisbury United
South Adelaide PanthersIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Vipers host Salisbury United on Saturday, 25 May 2024 at 06:00. The match is part of the South Australia State League 1 2021/2022 season.
Match Recap: Vipers vs Salisbury United
Vipers beat Salisbury United 3-2 in South Australia State League 1 on May 25, 2024.
The match was played at Apex Football Centre Pitch 1 in Adelaide.