Salisbury United 4–1 Vipers: Result & Stats

Salisbury United

FT

4 – 1

Vipers

2/24/2024

South Australia State League 1 · Round 1PSD Energy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Salisbury United53%

×Draw21%

Vipers26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salisbury UnitedExpected goals in this matchVipers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.48

Salisbury United

2.17

Vipers

1.48

Salisbury United creates 47% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

1.82

creates per match

1.24

1.73

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Salisbury United

1.82

Vipers

1.24

allows per match

Salisbury United

1.73

Vipers

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salisbury United+0.00on par

Vipers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salisbury United ↓

Vipers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Salisbury United or draw

74%

Salisbury United or Vipers

79%

Draw or Vipers

47%

Winning margin

Salisbury United wins by 2+

32%

Vipers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Salisbury United 1+ goals

89%

Salisbury United 2+ goals

64%

Salisbury United 3+ goals

36%

Vipers 1+ goals

77%

Vipers 2+ goals

43%

Vipers 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Salisbury United (draw refunded)

67%

Vipers (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salisbury United at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

Vipers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salisbury United attack 1.82 + Vipers defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.17

Vipers attack 1.24 + Salisbury United defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Salisbury United scores more

53%

level

21%

Vipers scores more

26%

Salisbury United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Salisbury United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff