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Vipers vs Raja Casablanca — CAF Champions League 2019

Vipers
Vipers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
3/18/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group C - 5St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vipers29%
×Draw32%
Raja Casablanca39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipers
0.85
Raja Casablanca
1.03

Raja Casablanca creates 21% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

creates per match

Vipers
0.67
Raja Casablanca
1.39

allows per match

Vipers
0.67
Raja Casablanca
1.04

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par
Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Raja Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Vipers or draw
61%
Vipers or Raja Casablanca
68%
Draw or Raja Casablanca
71%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+
10%
Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals
57%
Vipers 2+ goals
21%
Vipers 3+ goals
5%
Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
64%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
28%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)
43%
Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Raja Casablanca away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 0.67 + Raja Casablanca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.85

Raja Casablanca attack 1.39 + Vipers defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vipers scores more
29%
level
32%
Raja Casablanca scores more
39%

Raja Casablanca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Vipers 1–1 Raja Casablanca

Vipers and Raja Casablanca drew 1-1 in CAF Champions League on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Kitende.