Raja Casablanca 5–0 Vipers: Result & Stats

Raja Casablanca

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Vipers

2/10/2023

CAF Champions League · Group C - 1Stade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Raja Casablanca64%

×Draw25%

Vipers11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raja CasablancaExpected goals in this matchVipers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.49

Raja Casablanca

1.57

Vipers

0.49

Raja Casablanca creates 220% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 8 away

1.64

creates per match

0.63

0.36

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Raja Casablanca

1.64

Vipers

0.63

allows per match

Raja Casablanca

0.36

Vipers

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Vipers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

Vipers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw

89%

Raja Casablanca or Vipers

75%

Draw or Vipers

36%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+

35%

Vipers wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals

79%

Raja Casablanca 2+ goals

46%

Raja Casablanca 3+ goals

21%

Vipers 1+ goals

39%

Vipers 2+ goals

9%

Vipers 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)

85%

Vipers (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.36 · 22 matches

Vipers away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 1.64 + Vipers defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Vipers attack 0.63 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more

64%

level

25%

Vipers scores more

11%

Raja Casablanca at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff