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Vipers vs Para Hills Knights — South Australia State League 1 2026

Vipers
Vipers
FT
2 – 2
Para Hills Knights
Para Hills Knights
2/18/2023South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 1Apex Football Centre Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vipers36%
×Draw24%
Para Hills Knights40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipers
1.51
Para Hills Knights
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 38 away

creates per match

Vipers
1.76
Para Hills Knights
1.53

allows per match

Vipers
1.70
Para Hills Knights
1.26

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par
Para Hills Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Para Hills Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Vipers or draw
60%
Vipers or Para Hills Knights
76%
Draw or Para Hills Knights
64%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+
17%
Para Hills Knights wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals
78%
Vipers 2+ goals
44%
Vipers 3+ goals
19%
Para Hills Knights 1+ goals
80%
Para Hills Knights 2+ goals
48%
Para Hills Knights 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)
47%
Para Hills Knights (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Para Hills Knights away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 1.76 + Para Hills Knights defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.51

Para Hills Knights attack 1.53 + Vipers defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vipers scores more
36%
level
24%
Para Hills Knights scores more
40%

Para Hills Knights at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Para Hills Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vipers vs Para Hills Knights

Vipers and Para Hills Knights drew 2-2 in South Australia State League 1 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Apex Football Centre Pitch 1 in Adelaide.