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Para Hills Knights vs Vipers — South Australia State League 1 2026

Para Hills Knights
Para Hills Knights
FT
5 – 2
Vipers
Vipers
5/13/2023South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 12The Paddocks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Para Hills Knights56%
×Draw20%
Vipers23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Para Hills Knights
2.23
Vipers
1.38

Para Hills Knights creates 62% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 33 away

creates per match

Para Hills Knights
1.94
Vipers
1.24

allows per match

Para Hills Knights
1.51
Vipers
2.52

finishing

Para Hills Knights+0.00on par
Vipers+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Para Hills Knights ↓

Vipers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Para Hills Knights or draw
77%
Para Hills Knights or Vipers
80%
Draw or Vipers
44%

Winning margin

Para Hills Knights wins by 2+
35%
Vipers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Para Hills Knights 1+ goals
89%
Para Hills Knights 2+ goals
65%
Para Hills Knights 3+ goals
38%
Vipers 1+ goals
75%
Vipers 2+ goals
40%
Vipers 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Para Hills Knights (draw refunded)
71%
Vipers (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Para Hills Knights at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Vipers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Para Hills Knights attack 1.94 + Vipers defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.23

Vipers attack 1.24 + Para Hills Knights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Para Hills Knights scores more
56%
level
20%
Vipers scores more
23%

Para Hills Knights at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Para Hills Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Para Hills Knights 5–2 Vipers

Para Hills Knights beat Vipers 5-2 in South Australia State League 1 on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at The Paddocks in Adelaide.