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Vipers vs Eastern United — South Australia State League 1 2021

Vipers
Vipers
FT
4 – 3
Eastern United
Eastern United
3/25/2023South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 5Apex Football Centre Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vipers52%
×Draw21%
Eastern United27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipers
2.05
Eastern United
1.42

Vipers creates 44% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 41 away

creates per match

Vipers
1.76
Eastern United
1.15

allows per match

Vipers
1.70
Eastern United
2.34

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par
Eastern United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Eastern United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Vipers or draw
73%
Vipers or Eastern United
79%
Draw or Eastern United
48%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+
30%
Eastern United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals
87%
Vipers 2+ goals
61%
Vipers 3+ goals
33%
Eastern United 1+ goals
76%
Eastern United 2+ goals
41%
Eastern United 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)
66%
Eastern United (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Eastern United away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.34 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 1.76 + Eastern United defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.05

Eastern United attack 1.15 + Vipers defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vipers scores more
52%
level
21%
Eastern United scores more
27%

Vipers at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vipers vs Eastern United

Vipers beat Eastern United 4-3 in South Australia State League 1 on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Apex Football Centre Pitch 1 in Adelaide.