Eastern United 0–2 Vipers: Result & Stats

Eastern United

FT

0 – 2

Vipers

6/10/2023

South Australia State League 1 · Round 16Athelstone Recreation Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Eastern United47%

×Draw22%

Vipers31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eastern UnitedExpected goals in this matchVipers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.52

Eastern United

1.92

Vipers

1.52

Eastern United creates 26% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 33 away

1.31

creates per match

1.24

1.81

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Eastern United

1.31

Vipers

1.24

allows per match

Eastern United

1.81

Vipers

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eastern United+0.00on par

Vipers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern United ↓

Vipers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Eastern United or draw

69%

Eastern United or Vipers

78%

Draw or Vipers

53%

Winning margin

Eastern United wins by 2+

26%

Vipers wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Eastern United 1+ goals

85%

Eastern United 2+ goals

57%

Eastern United 3+ goals

30%

Vipers 1+ goals

78%

Vipers 2+ goals

45%

Vipers 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Eastern United (draw refunded)

60%

Vipers (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern United at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

Vipers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern United attack 1.31 + Vipers defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.92

Vipers attack 1.24 + Eastern United defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Eastern United scores more

47%

level

22%

Vipers scores more

31%

Eastern United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Eastern United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff