Vipers 1–1 Adelaide Blue Eagles: Result & Stats

Vipers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Adelaide Blue Eagles

6/7/2025

South Australia State League 1 · Round 13Apex Football Centre Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vipers36%

×Draw22%

Adelaide Blue Eagles41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VipersExpected goals in this matchAdelaide Blue Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.79

Vipers

1.67

Adelaide Blue Eagles

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 53 away

1.76

creates per match

1.89

1.70

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Vipers

1.76

Adelaide Blue Eagles

1.89

allows per match

Vipers

1.70

Adelaide Blue Eagles

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par

Adelaide Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Adelaide Blue Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Vipers or draw

59%

Vipers or Adelaide Blue Eagles

78%

Draw or Adelaide Blue Eagles

64%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+

18%

Adelaide Blue Eagles wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals

81%

Vipers 2+ goals

50%

Vipers 3+ goals

23%

Adelaide Blue Eagles 1+ goals

83%

Adelaide Blue Eagles 2+ goals

53%

Adelaide Blue Eagles 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)

47%

Adelaide Blue Eagles (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Adelaide Blue Eagles away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 1.76 + Adelaide Blue Eagles defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.67

Adelaide Blue Eagles attack 1.89 + Vipers defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vipers scores more

36%

level

22%

Adelaide Blue Eagles scores more

41%

Adelaide Blue Eagles at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Adelaide Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff