Adelaide Blue Eagles 3–0 Vipers: Result & Stats

Adelaide Blue Eagles

FT

3 – 0

Vipers

3/28/2024

South Australia State League 1 · Round 5Marden Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Adelaide Blue Eagles62%

×Draw19%

Vipers19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide Blue EaglesExpected goals in this matchVipers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.27

Adelaide Blue Eagles

2.38

Vipers

1.27

Adelaide Blue Eagles creates 87% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 33 away

2.24

creates per match

1.24

1.29

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Adelaide Blue Eagles

2.24

Vipers

1.24

allows per match

Adelaide Blue Eagles

1.29

Vipers

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Vipers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Blue Eagles ↓

Vipers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Adelaide Blue Eagles or draw

81%

Adelaide Blue Eagles or Vipers

81%

Draw or Vipers

38%

Winning margin

Adelaide Blue Eagles wins by 2+

40%

Vipers wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Adelaide Blue Eagles 1+ goals

91%

Adelaide Blue Eagles 2+ goals

68%

Adelaide Blue Eagles 3+ goals

42%

Vipers 1+ goals

72%

Vipers 2+ goals

36%

Vipers 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Blue Eagles (draw refunded)

76%

Vipers (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Blue Eagles at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

Vipers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Blue Eagles attack 2.24 + Vipers defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.38

Vipers attack 1.24 + Adelaide Blue Eagles defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Adelaide Blue Eagles scores more

62%

level

19%

Vipers scores more

19%

Adelaide Blue Eagles at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Adelaide Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff