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Vineta Wolin vs Świt Skolwin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Vineta Wolin
Vineta Wolin
FT
1 – 1
Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
4/22/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Vineta Wolin28%
×Draw24%
Świt Skolwin49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vineta Wolin
1.23
Świt Skolwin
1.71

Świt Skolwin creates 39% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 66 away

creates per match

Vineta Wolin
1.38
Świt Skolwin
1.59

allows per match

Vineta Wolin
1.82
Świt Skolwin
1.09

finishing

Vineta Wolin+0.00on par
Świt Skolwin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vineta Wolin ↓

Świt Skolwin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vineta Wolin or draw
51%
Vineta Wolin or Świt Skolwin
76%
Draw or Świt Skolwin
72%

Winning margin

Vineta Wolin wins by 2+
11%
Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Vineta Wolin 1+ goals
71%
Vineta Wolin 2+ goals
35%
Vineta Wolin 3+ goals
13%
Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
82%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
51%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Vineta Wolin (draw refunded)
36%
Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vineta Wolin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.82 · 50 matches

Świt Skolwin away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vineta Wolin attack 1.38 + Świt Skolwin defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Świt Skolwin attack 1.59 + Vineta Wolin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vineta Wolin scores more
28%
level
24%
Świt Skolwin scores more
49%

Świt Skolwin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Świt Skolwin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vineta Wolin vs Świt Skolwin

Vineta Wolin and Świt Skolwin drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Wolin.