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Świt Skolwin vs Vineta Wolin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vineta Wolin
Vineta Wolin
11/11/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stadion Miejski Skolwin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Świt Skolwin69%
×Draw17%
Vineta Wolin14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świt Skolwin
2.47
Vineta Wolin
1.00

Świt Skolwin creates 147% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

creates per match

Świt Skolwin
2.26
Vineta Wolin
1.27

allows per match

Świt Skolwin
0.74
Vineta Wolin
2.69

finishing

Świt Skolwin+0.00on par
Vineta Wolin+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świt Skolwin ↓

Vineta Wolin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Świt Skolwin or draw
86%
Świt Skolwin or Vineta Wolin
83%
Draw or Vineta Wolin
31%

Winning margin

Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
47%
Vineta Wolin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
91%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
70%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
44%
Vineta Wolin 1+ goals
63%
Vineta Wolin 2+ goals
26%
Vineta Wolin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
84%
Vineta Wolin (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świt Skolwin at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 69 matches

Vineta Wolin away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świt Skolwin attack 2.26 + Vineta Wolin defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.47

Vineta Wolin attack 1.27 + Świt Skolwin defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Świt Skolwin scores more
69%
level
17%
Vineta Wolin scores more
14%

Świt Skolwin at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Świt Skolwin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Świt Skolwin 4–0 Vineta Wolin

Świt Skolwin beat Vineta Wolin 4-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Skolwin in Szczecin.