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Vineta Wolin vs Polonia Środa — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Vineta Wolin
Vineta Wolin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Polonia Środa
Polonia Środa
8/3/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Vineta Wolin32%
×Draw23%
Polonia Środa45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vineta Wolin
1.46
Polonia Środa
1.78

Polonia Środa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 101 away

creates per match

Vineta Wolin
1.38
Polonia Środa
1.74

allows per match

Vineta Wolin
1.82
Polonia Środa
1.54

finishing

Vineta Wolin+0.00on par
Polonia Środa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vineta Wolin ↓

Polonia Środa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Vineta Wolin or draw
55%
Vineta Wolin or Polonia Środa
77%
Draw or Polonia Środa
68%

Winning margin

Vineta Wolin wins by 2+
15%
Polonia Środa wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Vineta Wolin 1+ goals
77%
Vineta Wolin 2+ goals
43%
Vineta Wolin 3+ goals
18%
Polonia Środa 1+ goals
83%
Polonia Środa 2+ goals
53%
Polonia Środa 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Vineta Wolin (draw refunded)
41%
Polonia Środa (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vineta Wolin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.82 · 50 matches

Polonia Środa away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.54 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vineta Wolin attack 1.38 + Polonia Środa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Polonia Środa attack 1.74 + Vineta Wolin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vineta Wolin scores more
32%
level
23%
Polonia Środa scores more
45%

Polonia Środa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Polonia Środa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Vineta Wolin 1–2 Polonia Środa

Polonia Środa beat Vineta Wolin 2-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Wolin.