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Polonia Środa vs Vineta Wolin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Polonia Środa
Polonia Środa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vineta Wolin
Vineta Wolin
5/25/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Polonia Środa58%
×Draw20%
Vineta Wolin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Środa
2.31
Vineta Wolin
1.39

Polonia Środa creates 66% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 51 away

creates per match

Polonia Środa
1.94
Vineta Wolin
1.27

allows per match

Polonia Środa
1.51
Vineta Wolin
2.69

finishing

Polonia Środa+0.00on par
Vineta Wolin+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Środa ↓

Vineta Wolin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Polonia Środa or draw
77%
Polonia Środa or Vineta Wolin
80%
Draw or Vineta Wolin
42%

Winning margin

Polonia Środa wins by 2+
36%
Vineta Wolin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Polonia Środa 1+ goals
90%
Polonia Środa 2+ goals
67%
Polonia Środa 3+ goals
40%
Vineta Wolin 1+ goals
75%
Vineta Wolin 2+ goals
40%
Vineta Wolin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Polonia Środa (draw refunded)
72%
Vineta Wolin (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Środa at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.51 · 102 matches

Vineta Wolin away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Środa attack 1.94 + Vineta Wolin defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.31

Vineta Wolin attack 1.27 + Polonia Środa defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Polonia Środa scores more
58%
level
20%
Vineta Wolin scores more
23%

Polonia Środa at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Polonia Środa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Środa vs Vineta Wolin

Polonia Środa beat Vineta Wolin 3-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej in Środa Wielkopolska.