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Vineta Wolin vs Noteć Czarnków — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Vineta Wolin
Vineta Wolin
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Noteć Czarnków
Noteć Czarnków
10/26/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Vineta Wolin37%
×Draw23%
Noteć Czarnków40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vineta Wolin
1.60
Noteć Czarnków
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 51 away

creates per match

Vineta Wolin
1.38
Noteć Czarnków
1.55

allows per match

Vineta Wolin
1.82
Noteć Czarnków
1.82

finishing

Vineta Wolin+0.00on par
Noteć Czarnków+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vineta Wolin ↓

Noteć Czarnków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vineta Wolin or draw
60%
Vineta Wolin or Noteć Czarnków
77%
Draw or Noteć Czarnków
63%

Winning margin

Vineta Wolin wins by 2+
18%
Noteć Czarnków wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vineta Wolin 1+ goals
80%
Vineta Wolin 2+ goals
47%
Vineta Wolin 3+ goals
22%
Noteć Czarnków 1+ goals
82%
Noteć Czarnków 2+ goals
50%
Noteć Czarnków 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Vineta Wolin (draw refunded)
48%
Noteć Czarnków (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vineta Wolin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.82 · 50 matches

Noteć Czarnków away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.82 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vineta Wolin attack 1.38 + Noteć Czarnków defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Noteć Czarnków attack 1.55 + Vineta Wolin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vineta Wolin scores more
37%
level
23%
Noteć Czarnków scores more
40%

Noteć Czarnków at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Noteć Czarnków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vineta Wolin vs Noteć Czarnków

Noteć Czarnków beat Vineta Wolin 3-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Wolin.