Noteć Czarnków 3–4 Vineta Wolin: Result & Stats

Noteć Czarnków

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Vineta Wolin

8/5/2023

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Stadion Noteć Czarnków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Noteć Czarnków58%

×Draw19%

Vineta Wolin22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Noteć CzarnkówExpected goals in this matchVineta Wolin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.42

Noteć Czarnków

2.37

Vineta Wolin

1.42

Noteć Czarnków creates 67% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

2.04

creates per match

1.27

1.57

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

Noteć Czarnków

2.04

Vineta Wolin

1.27

allows per match

Noteć Czarnków

1.57

Vineta Wolin

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Noteć Czarnków+0.00on par

Vineta Wolin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noteć Czarnków ↓

Vineta Wolin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Noteć Czarnków or draw

78%

Noteć Czarnków or Vineta Wolin

81%

Draw or Vineta Wolin

42%

Winning margin

Noteć Czarnków wins by 2+

37%

Vineta Wolin wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Noteć Czarnków 1+ goals

91%

Noteć Czarnków 2+ goals

68%

Noteć Czarnków 3+ goals

42%

Vineta Wolin 1+ goals

76%

Vineta Wolin 2+ goals

41%

Vineta Wolin 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Noteć Czarnków (draw refunded)

72%

Vineta Wolin (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noteć Czarnków at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

Vineta Wolin away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noteć Czarnków attack 2.04 + Vineta Wolin defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.37

Vineta Wolin attack 1.27 + Noteć Czarnków defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Noteć Czarnków scores more

58%

level

19%

Vineta Wolin scores more

22%

Noteć Czarnków at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Noteć Czarnków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff