Vineta Wolin 2–1 Luzino: Result & Stats

Vineta Wolin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Luzino

8/11/2023

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Vineta Wolin34%

×Draw23%

Luzino43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vineta WolinExpected goals in this matchLuzino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.75

Vineta Wolin

1.54

Luzino

1.75

Luzino creates 14% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 34 away

1.38

creates per match

1.68

1.82

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Vineta Wolin

1.38

Luzino

1.68

allows per match

Vineta Wolin

1.82

Luzino

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vineta Wolin+0.00on par

Luzino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vineta Wolin ↓

Luzino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Vineta Wolin or draw

57%

Vineta Wolin or Luzino

77%

Draw or Luzino

66%

Winning margin

Vineta Wolin wins by 2+

16%

Luzino wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Vineta Wolin 1+ goals

79%

Vineta Wolin 2+ goals

45%

Vineta Wolin 3+ goals

20%

Luzino 1+ goals

83%

Luzino 2+ goals

52%

Luzino 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Vineta Wolin (draw refunded)

44%

Luzino (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vineta Wolin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.82 · 50 matches

Luzino away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vineta Wolin attack 1.38 + Luzino defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Luzino attack 1.68 + Vineta Wolin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vineta Wolin scores more

34%

level

23%

Luzino scores more

43%

Luzino at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Luzino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff