Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Luzino vs Vineta Wolin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Luzino
Luzino
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vineta Wolin
Vineta Wolin
3/1/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Boisko za płytą główną GOSRiT Luzino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Luzino60%
×Draw19%
Vineta Wolin21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luzino
2.41
Vineta Wolin
1.35

Luzino creates 79% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Luzino
2.12
Vineta Wolin
1.27

allows per match

Luzino
1.44
Vineta Wolin
2.69

finishing

Luzino+0.00on par
Vineta Wolin+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luzino ↓

Vineta Wolin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Luzino or draw
79%
Luzino or Vineta Wolin
81%
Draw or Vineta Wolin
40%

Winning margin

Luzino wins by 2+
39%
Vineta Wolin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Luzino 1+ goals
91%
Luzino 2+ goals
69%
Luzino 3+ goals
43%
Vineta Wolin 1+ goals
74%
Vineta Wolin 2+ goals
39%
Vineta Wolin 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Luzino (draw refunded)
75%
Vineta Wolin (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luzino at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Vineta Wolin away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luzino attack 2.12 + Vineta Wolin defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.41

Vineta Wolin attack 1.27 + Luzino defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Luzino scores more
60%
level
19%
Vineta Wolin scores more
21%

Luzino at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Luzino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luzino vs Vineta Wolin

Luzino beat Vineta Wolin 3-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Boisko za płytą główną GOSRiT Luzino in Luzino.