Vindbjart 4–1 Torvastad: Result & Stats

Vindbjart

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Torvastad

6/14/2025

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 10Sparebanken Sør-banen Vennesla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vindbjart82%

×Draw10%

Torvastad7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VindbjartExpected goals in this matchTorvastad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.73

1.11

Vindbjart

3.73

Torvastad

1.11

Vindbjart creates 236% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

3.92

creates per match

0.92

1.31

allows per match

3.54

creates per match

Vindbjart

3.92

Torvastad

0.92

allows per match

Vindbjart

1.31

Torvastad

3.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vindbjart+0.00on par

Torvastad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vindbjart ↓

Torvastad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–18%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Vindbjart or draw

93%

Vindbjart or Torvastad

90%

Draw or Torvastad

18%

Winning margin

Vindbjart wins by 2+

66%

Torvastad wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Vindbjart 1+ goals

97%

Vindbjart 2+ goals

88%

Vindbjart 3+ goals

69%

Torvastad 1+ goals

67%

Torvastad 2+ goals

30%

Torvastad 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vindbjart (draw refunded)

92%

Torvastad (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vindbjart at home — creates 3.92, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Torvastad away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vindbjart attack 3.92 + Torvastad defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 3.73

Torvastad attack 0.92 + Vindbjart defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Vindbjart scores more

82%

level

10%

Torvastad scores more

7%

Vindbjart at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Vindbjart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff