Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Torvastad vs Vindbjart — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Torvastad
Torvastad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vindbjart
Vindbjart
9/6/20253. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 19Torvastad Idrettssenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Torvastad33%
×Draw23%
Vindbjart44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torvastad
1.47
Vindbjart
1.73

Vindbjart creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Torvastad
1.31
Vindbjart
1.77

allows per match

Torvastad
1.69
Vindbjart
1.62

finishing

Torvastad+0.00on par
Vindbjart+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torvastad ↓

Vindbjart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Torvastad or draw
56%
Torvastad or Vindbjart
77%
Draw or Vindbjart
67%

Winning margin

Torvastad wins by 2+
15%
Vindbjart wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Torvastad 1+ goals
77%
Torvastad 2+ goals
43%
Torvastad 3+ goals
18%
Vindbjart 1+ goals
82%
Vindbjart 2+ goals
52%
Vindbjart 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Torvastad (draw refunded)
43%
Vindbjart (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torvastad at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Vindbjart away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torvastad attack 1.31 + Vindbjart defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Vindbjart attack 1.77 + Torvastad defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torvastad scores more
33%
level
23%
Vindbjart scores more
44%

Vindbjart at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vindbjart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Torvastad 1–1 Vindbjart

Torvastad and Vindbjart drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Torvastad Idrettssenter in Torvastad.