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Vilniaus Vytis vs Panevėžys II — 1 Lyga 2026

Vilniaus Vytis
Vilniaus Vytis
FT
0 – 6
Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
8/22/20201 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 12Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Vilniaus Vytis60%
×Draw19%
Panevėžys II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilniaus Vytis
2.40
Panevėžys II
1.38

Vilniaus Vytis creates 74% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 81 away

creates per match

Vilniaus Vytis
2.60
Panevėžys II
1.47

allows per match

Vilniaus Vytis
1.28
Panevėžys II
2.19

finishing

Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par
Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilniaus Vytis ↓

Panevėžys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Vilniaus Vytis or draw
79%
Vilniaus Vytis or Panevėžys II
81%
Draw or Panevėžys II
40%

Winning margin

Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+
38%
Panevėžys II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals
91%
Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals
69%
Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals
42%
Panevėžys II 1+ goals
75%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
40%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)
74%
Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilniaus Vytis at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilniaus Vytis attack 2.60 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.40

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Vilniaus Vytis scores more
60%
level
19%
Panevėžys II scores more
21%

Vilniaus Vytis at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Vilniaus Vytis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilniaus Vytis vs Panevėžys II

Panevėžys II beat Vilniaus Vytis 6-0 in 1 Lyga on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.