Panevėžys II 3–1 Vilniaus Vytis: Result & Stats

Panevėžys II

FT

3 – 1

Vilniaus Vytis

10/31/2020

1 Lyga · Promotion Round - 7Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Panevėžys II31%

×Draw22%

Vilniaus Vytis47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Panevėžys IIExpected goals in this matchVilniaus Vytis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.96

Panevėžys II

1.54

Vilniaus Vytis

1.96

Vilniaus Vytis creates 27% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 23 away

1.47

creates per match

1.91

2.01

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Panevėžys II

1.47

Vilniaus Vytis

1.91

allows per match

Panevėžys II

2.01

Vilniaus Vytis

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Vilniaus Vytis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw

53%

Panevėžys II or Vilniaus Vytis

78%

Draw or Vilniaus Vytis

69%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+

14%

Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals

79%

Panevėžys II 2+ goals

45%

Panevėžys II 3+ goals

20%

Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals

86%

Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals

58%

Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)

39%

Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Vilniaus Vytis away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Vilniaus Vytis attack 1.91 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Panevėžys II scores more

31%

level

22%

Vilniaus Vytis scores more

47%

Vilniaus Vytis at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vilniaus Vytis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff